Forecasting by (Arima) models Toinflation rate in Sudan

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Author: 
Dr. Elsiddig Idriss Mohamed
Abstract: 

In this paper we introduce a brief review about Box-Jenkins models. These models provide a very good method to forecast for stationary and non-stationary time series. Box and Jenkins technique is used to find the best model for inflation rates in Sudan. To achieve this objective, a series of inflation rates ranged from 1998 to 2013 were obtained from the annual reports of the Central Bank of Sudan. The estimation concludes that the most proper time series model to forecast the inflation rate in Sudan is the AR (1), MA (3) model. We find that the highest forecasted inflation rate in Sudan for the coming five years will be attained in 2020 as 109.37%.

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