Modelling dependency structural of the wind energy in Lebanon

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Author: 
Hussein Khraibani and Zaher Khraibani
Abstract: 

For several decades, wind power is experiencing tremendous growth, however, the production of wind energy depends on wind intensity, strongly volatile, and is therefore characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. Planning the installation of a wind farm for several stations requires the assessment of the risk which in turn results in an assessment of the variability in production. Longevity, it starts with the recognition of the links between the various stations. The objective of this article is to develop a dependency structure assessment approach between different stations in Lebanon. The database used includes daily subsistence wind speeds of fourteen stations in Lebanon over a period of 6 years, from October 28th, 2009 until March 15th, 2016 and freely available on the NOAA network of American government. This database are used to estimate the necessary models such as, the univariate time series which will be modeled by the ARIMA process. We will establish a structure of spatial dependence of the innovations of these processes between different stations by using the copulas theory.

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   Vol. 07, Issue 03, March 2017

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