Application of the narx model for forecasting wind speed for wind energy generation
International Journal of Development Research
Application of the narx model for forecasting wind speed for wind energy generation
Received 14th January, 2021; Received in revised form 28th February, 2021; Accepted 11th March, 2021; Published online 30th April, 2021
Copyright © 2021, Ricardo Silva Parente et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
The wind energy matrix has been gradually increasing in recent years and its importance for the renewable energy industry is increasingly linked to benefits in relation to the environment. The objective is to apply the NARX model to forecast wind speed in the short term and consequently the generation of wind energy. In the materials and methods, the database of the SONDA project (System of National Organization of Environmental Data) organized by INPE (National Institute for Space Research) was used, in which it was decided to use the anemometric data of the Brasília station - BRB, where data from February 2005 to March 2019 were used for validation training and testing of the model developed. The results obtained were characterized by a better performance for the short-term time horizon of 10 minutes up to 10 steps ahead, which helps to provide the wind energy industry with greater reliability in energy delivery.
