Prediction the daily number of confirmed cases of covid-19 in Sudan with arima and holt winter exponential smoothing
International Journal of Development Research
Prediction the daily number of confirmed cases of covid-19 in Sudan with arima and holt winter exponential smoothing
Received 11th May 2020; Received in revised form 26th June 2020; Accepted 07th July 2020; Published online 30th August 2020
Copyright © 2020, Ana Keuly Luz Bezerra and Éthynna Marina Corrêa Santos. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This paper compares the performance of ARIMA and Holt linear exponential smoothing models in the perdition of covid-19 confirmed cases in Sudan, daily readings of Covid-2019 confirmed cases data covered the period 24th March 2020 until 10th June 2020 obtained from federal ministry of health- Sudan are used in the analysis of this paper.ARIMA and Holt linear exponential smoothing models were applied to the data, the empirical analysis results indicated that the ARIM(2, 1,2) is an appropriate to represents ARIMA model. ARIM(2,1,2) as well as Holt linear exponential smoothing models are compared through examining the goodness of fit of each model using certain criteria. Based on AIC and BIC accuracy measurementsthe ARIMA model was chosen as an appropriate model rather than Holt exponential smoothing models, this finding suggests that ARIMA is highly recommended.
